Host preference of field-derived Schistosoma mansoni is influenced by snail host compatibility and infection status.

Schistosome parasites cause a chronic inflammatory disease in humans, and recent studies have emphasized the importance of control programs for understanding the aquatic phases of schistosomiasis transmission. The host-seeking behavior of larval schistosomes (miracidia) for their snail intermediate hosts plays a critical role in parasite transmission. Using field-derived strains of Kenyan snails and parasites, we tested two main hypotheses: (1) Parasites prefer the most compatible host, and (2) parasites avoid hosts that are already infected. We tested preference to three Biomphalaria host snail taxa (B. pfeifferi, B. sudanica, and B. choanomphala), using allopatric and sympatric Schistosoma mansoni isolates and two different nonhost snail species that co-occur with Biomphalaria, Bulinus globosus, and Physa acuta. We also tested whether schistosomes avoid snail hosts that are already infected by another trematode species and whether competitive dominance played a role in their behavior. Preference was assessed using two-way choice chambers and by visually counting parasites that moved toward competing stimuli. In pairwise comparisons, we found that S. mansoni did not always prefer the more compatible snail taxon, but never favored an incompatible host over a compatible host. While parasites preferred B. pfeifferi to the nonhost species B. globosus, they did not significantly prefer B. pfeifferi versus P. acuta, an introduced species in Kenya. Finally, we demonstrated that parasites avoid infected snails if the resident parasite was competitively dominant (Patagifer sp.), and preferred snails infected with subordinates (xiphidiocercariae) to uninfected snails. These results provide evidence of "fine tuning" in the ability of schistosome miracidia to detect hosts; however, they did not always select hosts that would maximize fitness. Appreciating such discriminatory abilities could lead to a better understanding of how ecosystem host and parasite diversity influences disease transmission and could provide novel control mechanisms to improve human health.

Racial bias and reproducibility in pulse oximetry among medical and surgical inpatients in general care in the Veterans Health Administration 2013-19: multicenter, retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate measurement discrepancies by race between pulse oximetry and arterial oxygen saturation (as measured in arterial blood gas) among inpatients not in intensive care. DESIGN: Multicenter, retrospective cohort study using electronic medical records from general care medical and surgical inpatients. SETTING: Veteran Health Administration, a national and racially diverse integrated health system in the United States, from 2013 to 2019. PARTICIPANTS: Adult inpatients in general care (medical and surgical), in Veteran Health Administration medical centers. MAIN OUTCOMES MEASURES: Occult hypoxemia (defined as arterial blood oxygen saturation (SaO2) of <88% despite a pulse oximetry (SpO2) reading of ≥92%), and whether rates of occult hypoxemia varied by race and ethnic origin. RESULTS: A total of 30 039 pairs of SpO2-SaO2 readings made within 10 minutes of each other were identified during the study. These pairs were predominantly among non-Hispanic white (21 918 (73.0%)) patients; non-Hispanic black patients and Hispanic or Latino patients accounted for 6498 (21.6%) and 1623 (5.4%) pairs in the sample, respectively. Among SpO2 values greater or equal to 92%, unadjusted probabilities of occult hypoxemia were 15.6% (95% confidence interval 15.0% to 16.1%) in white patients, 19.6% (18.6% to 20.6%) in black patients (P<0.001 v white patients, with similar P values in adjusted models), and 16.2% (14.4% to 18.1%) in Hispanic or Latino patients (P=0.53 v white patients, P<0.05 in adjusted models). This result was consistent in SpO2-SaO2 pairs restricted to occur within 5 minutes and 2 minutes. In white patients, an initial SpO2-SaO2 pair with little difference in saturation was associated with a 2.7% (95% confidence interval -0.1% to 5.5%) probability of SaO2 <88% on a later paired SpO2-SaO2 reading showing an SpO2 of 92%, but black patients had a higher probability (12.9% (-3.3% to 29.0%)). CONCLUSIONS: In general care inpatient settings across the Veterans Health Administration where paired readings of arterial blood gas (SaO2) and pulse oximetry (SpO2) were obtained, black patients had higher odds than white patients of having occult hypoxemia noted on arterial blood gas but not detected by pulse oximetry. This difference could limit access to supplemental oxygen and other more intensive support and treatments for black patients.

Racial Bias in Pulse Oximetry Measurement Among Patients About to Undergo Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation in 2019-2020: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Pulse oximeters may produce less accurate results in non-White patients. RESEARCH QUESTION: Do pulse oximeters detect arterial hypoxemia less effectively in Black, Hispanic, and/or Asian patients than in White patients in respiratory failure and about to undergo extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO)? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Data on adult patients with respiratory failure readings 6 h before ECMO were provided by the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization registry. Data was collected from 324 centers between January 2019 and July 2020. Our primary analysis was of rates of occult hypoxemia-low arterial oxygen saturation (Sao2 ≤ 88%) on arterial blood gas measurement despite a pulse oximetry reading in the range of 92% to 96%. RESULTS: The rate of pre-ECMO occult hypoxemia, that is, arterial oxygen saturation (Sao2) ≤ 88%, was 10.2% (95% CI, 6.2%-15.3%) for 186 White patients with peripheral oxygen saturation (Spo2) of 92% to 96%; 21.5% (95% CI, 11.3%-35.3%) for 51 Black patients (P = .031 vs White); 8.6% (95% CI, 3.2%-17.7%) for 70 Hispanic patients (P = .693 vs White); and 9.2% (95% CI, 3.5%-19.0%) for 65 Asian patients (P = .820 vs White). Black patients with respiratory failure had a statistically significantly higher risk of occult hypoxemia with an OR of 2.57 (95% CI, 1.12-5.92) compared with White patients (P = .026). The risk of occult hypoxemia for Hispanic and Asian patients was equivalent to that of White patients. In a secondary analysis of patients with Sao2 ≤ 88% despite Spo2 > 96%, Black patients had more than three times the risk compared with White patients (OR, 3.52; 95% CI, 1.12-11.10; P = .032). INTERPRETATION: Compared with White patients, the prevalence of occult hypoxemia was higher in Black patients than in White patients about to undergo ECMO for respiratory failure, but it was comparable in Hispanic and Asian patients compared with White patients.

Cosmetic Endocrinology.

Cosmetic endocrinology treats endocrine pathophysiologies to improve cosmetically bothersome physical exam findings for the patient. Here we review the general cosmetic changes in PCOS with an emphasis on targeted cosmetic medical therapies.

An update on stem cell therapy for Asherman syndrome.

The current treatment for Asherman syndrome is limited and not very effective. The aim of this review is to summarize the most recent evidence for stem cells in the treatment of Asherman syndrome. The advent of stem cell therapy has propagated experimentation on mice and humans as a novel treatment. The consensus is that the regenerative capacity of stem cells has demonstrated improved outcomes in terms of fertility and fibrosis in both mice and humans with Asherman syndrome. Stem cells have effects on tissue repair by homing to the injured site, recruiting other cells by secreting chemokines, modulating the immune system, differentiating into other types of cells, proliferating into daughter cells, and potentially having antimicrobial activity. The studies reviewed examine different origins and administration modalities of stem cells. In preclinical models, therapeutic systemic injection of stem cells is more effective than direct intrauterine injection in regenerating the endometrium. In conjunction, bone marrow-derived stem cells have a stronger effect on uterine regeneration than uterine-derived stem cells, likely due to their broader differentiation potency. Clinical trials have demonstrated the initial safety and effectiveness profiles of menstrual, bone marrow, umbilical cord, and adipose tissue-derived stem cells in resumption of menstruation, fertility outcomes, and endometrial regeneration.

Serum IgG Levels and Risk of COPD Hospitalization: A Pooled Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hypogammaglobulinemia (serum IgG levels < 7.0 g/L) has been associated with increased risk of COPD exacerbations but has not yet been shown to predict hospitalizations. RESEARCH QUESTION: To determine the relationship between hypogammaglobulinemia and the risk of hospitalization in patients with COPD. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Serum IgG levels were measured on baseline samples from four COPD cohorts (n = 2,259): Azithromycin for Prevention of AECOPD (MACRO, n = 976); Simvastatin in the Prevention of AECOPD (STATCOPE, n = 653), Long-Term Oxygen Treatment Trial (LOTT, n = 354), and COPD Activity: Serotonin Transporter, Cytokines and Depression (CASCADE, n = 276). IgG levels were determined by immunonephelometry (MACRO; STATCOPE) or mass spectrometry (LOTT; CASCADE). The effect of hypogammaglobulinemia on COPD hospitalization risk was evaluated using cumulative incidence functions for this outcome and deaths (competing risk). Fine-Gray models were performed to obtain adjusted subdistribution hazard ratios (SHR) related to IgG levels for each study and then combined using a meta-analysis. Rates of COPD hospitalizations per person-year were compared according to IgG status. RESULTS: The overall frequency of hypogammaglobulinemia was 28.4%. Higher incidence estimates of COPD hospitalizations were observed among participants with low IgG levels compared with those with normal levels (Gray's test, P < .001); pooled SHR (meta-analysis) was 1.29 (95% CI, 1.06-1.56, P = .01). Among patients with prior COPD admissions (n = 757), the pooled SHR increased to 1.58 (95% CI, 1.20-2.07, P < .01). The risk of COPD admissions, however, was similar between IgG groups in patients with no prior hospitalizations: pooled SHR = 1.15 (95% CI, 0.86-1.52, P =.34). The hypogammaglobulinemia group also showed significantly higher rates of COPD hospitalizations per person-year: 0.48 ± 2.01 vs 0.29 ± 0.83, P < .001. INTERPRETATION: Hypogammaglobulinemia is associated with a higher risk of COPD hospital admissions.

Association of Guideline-Recommended COPD Inhaler Regimens With Mortality, Respiratory Exacerbations, and Quality of Life: A Secondary Analysis of the Long-Term Oxygen Treatment Trial.

BACKGROUND: Although inhaled therapy reduces exacerbations among patients with COPD, the effectiveness of providing inhaled treatment per risk stratification models remains unclear. RESEARCH QUESTION: Are inhaled regimens that align with the 2017 Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) strategy associated with clinically important outcomes? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted secondary analyses of Long-term Oxygen Treatment Trial (LOTT) data. The trial enrolled patients with COPD with moderate resting or exertional hypoxemia between 2009 and 2015. Our exposure was the patient-reported inhaled regimen at enrollment, categorized as either aligning with, undertreating, or potentially overtreating per the 2017 GOLD strategy. Our primary composite outcome was time to death or first hospitalization for COPD. Additional outcomes included individual components of the composite outcome and time to first exacerbation. We generated multivariable Cox proportional hazard models across strata of GOLD-predicted exacerbation risk (high vs low) to estimate between-group hazard ratios for time to event outcomes. We adjusted models a priori for potential confounders, clustered by site. RESULTS: The trial enrolled 738 patients (73.4% men; mean age, 68.8 years). Of the patients, 571 (77.4%) were low risk for future exacerbations. Of the patients, 233 (31.6%) reported regimens aligning with GOLD recommendations; most regimens (54.1%) potentially overtreated. During a 2.3-year median follow-up, 332 patients (44.9%) experienced the composite outcome. We found no difference in time to composite outcome or death among patients reporting regimens aligning with recommendations compared with undertreated patients. Among patients at low risk, potential overtreatment was associated with higher exacerbation risk (hazard ratio, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.09-1.87), whereas inhaled corticosteroid treatment was associated with 64% higher risk of pneumonia (incidence rate ratio, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.01-2.66). INTERPRETATION: Among patients with COPD with moderate hypoxemia, we found no difference in clinical outcomes between inhaled regimens aligning with the 2017 GOLD strategy compared with those that were undertreated. These findings suggest the need to reevaluate the effectiveness of risk stratification model-based inhaled treatment strategies.

Training and Deployment of Medical Students as Respiratory Therapist Extenders during COVID-19.

Background: Early experience during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and predictive modeling indicate that the need for respiratory therapists (RTs) will exceed the current supply. Objective: We present an implemented model to train and deploy medical students in the novel role of "respiratory therapist extender" (RTE) to address respiratory therapist shortage during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: The RTE role was formulated through discussions with respiratory therapists. A three-part training, with both online and in-person components, was developed and delivered to 25 University of Michigan Medical Students. RTEs were trained in basic respiratory care, documentation, equipment preparation, and equipment processing for clinically stable patients. They operate in a tiered staffing model in which RTEs report to a single RT, thereby extending his/her initial capacity. Results: The first cohort of safely trained RTEs was deployed to provide patient care within 1 week of volunteer recruitment. Conclusion: Our experience has demonstrated that healthcare professionals, including medical students, can be quickly trained and deployed in the novel RTE role as a surge strategy during the COVID-19 pandemic. Because we urgently developed and implemented the RTE role, we recognize the need for ongoing monitoring and adaptation to ensure patient and volunteer safety. We are sharing the RTE concept and training openly to help address RT shortages as the pandemic evolves.

Predicting Medical School Enrollment Behavior: Comparing an Enrollment Management Model to Expert Human Judgment.

PURPOSE: Medical school admissions committees are tasked with fulfilling the values of their institutions through careful recruitment. Making accurate predictions regarding enrollment behavior of admitted students is critical to intentionally formulating class composition and impacts long-term physician representation. The predictive accuracy and potential advantages of employing an enrollment predictive model in medical school admissions compared with expert human judgment have not been tested. METHOD: The enrollment management-based predictive model previously generated using historical data was employed to provide a predicted enrollment percentage for each admitted student in the 2016-2017 application pool (N = 352). Concurrently, the human expert created a predicted enrollment percentage for each applicant while blinded to the values generated by the model. An absolute error for each applicant for both approaches was calculated. Statistical significance between approaches (expert vs. enrollment model) was assessed using t tests. RESULTS: The enrollment management approach was noninferior to expert prediction in all cases (P < .05) with a superior correct classification rate (77.7% vs. 71.2%). When considering subgroup analyses for specific populations of potential importance in recruiting (underrepresented in medicine, female, and in-state applicants), the enrollment management predictions were statistically more accurate (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Examining a single admitted class, the enrollment predictions using the enrollment management model were at least as accurate as the expert human estimates, and in specific populations of interest more accurate. This information can be readily exported for a real-time dashboard system to drive recruitment behaviors.

The influence of MCAT and GPA preadmission academic metrics on interview scores.

Medical school admissions interviews are used to assess applicants' nonacademic characteristics as advocated by the Association of American Medical Colleges' Advancing Holistic Review Initiative. The objective of this study is to determine whether academic metrics continue to significantly influence interviewers' scores in holistic processes by blinding interviewers to applicants' undergraduate grade point averages (uGPA) and Medical College Admission Test (MCAT). This study examines academic and demographic predictors of interview scores for two applicant cohorts at the University of Michigan Medical School. In 2012, interviewers were provided applicants' uGPA and MCAT scores; in 2013, these academic metrics were withheld from interviewers' files. Hierarchical regression analysis was conducted to examine the influence of academic and demographic variables on overall cohort interview scores. When interviewers were provided uGPA and MCAT scores, academic metrics explained more variation in interview scores (7.9%) than when interviewers were blinded to these metrics (4.1%). Further analysis showed a statistically significant interaction between cohort and uGPA, indicating that the association between uGPA and interview scores was significantly stronger for the 2012 unblinded cohort compared to the 2013 blinded cohort (ß = .573, P < .05). By contrast, MCAT scores had no interactive effects on interviewer scores. While MCAT scores accounted for some variation in interview scores for both cohorts, only access to uGPA significantly influenced interviewers' scores when looking at interaction effects. Withholding academic metrics from interviewers' files may promote assessment of nonacademic characteristics independently from academic metrics.

The Long-Term Oxygen Treatment Trial for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: Rationale, Design, and Lessons Learned.

The Long-Term Oxygen Treatment Trial demonstrated that long-term supplemental oxygen did not reduce time to hospital admission or death for patients who have stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and resting and/or exercise-induced moderate oxyhemoglobin desaturation, nor did it provide benefit for any other outcome measured in the trial. Nine months after initiation of patient screening, after randomization of 34 patients to treatment, a trial design amendment broadened the eligible population, expanded the primary outcome, and reduced the goal sample size. Within a few years, the protocol underwent minor modifications, and a second trial design amendment lowered the required sample size because of lower than expected treatment group crossover rates. After 5.5 years of recruitment, the trial met its amended sample size goal, and 1 year later, it achieved its follow-up goal. The process of publishing the trial results brought renewed scrutiny of the study design and the amendments. This article expands on the previously published design and methods information, provides the rationale for the amendments, and gives insight into the investigators' decisions about trial conduct. The story of the Long-Term Oxygen Treatment Trial may assist investigators in future trials, especially those that seek to assess the efficacy and safety of long-term oxygen therapy. Clinical trial registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00692198).

A Randomized Trial of Long-Term Oxygen for COPD with Moderate Desaturation.

BACKGROUND: Long-term treatment with supplemental oxygen has unknown efficacy in patients with stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and resting or exercise-induced moderate desaturation. METHODS: We originally designed the trial to test whether long-term treatment with supplemental oxygen would result in a longer time to death than no use of supplemental oxygen among patients who had stable COPD with moderate resting desaturation (oxyhemoglobin saturation as measured by pulse oximetry [Spo2], 89 to 93%). After 7 months and the randomization of 34 patients, the trial was redesigned to also include patients who had stable COPD with moderate exercise-induced desaturation (during the 6-minute walk test, Spo2 ≥80% for ≥5 minutes and <90% for ≥10 seconds) and to incorporate the time to the first hospitalization for any cause into the new composite primary outcome. Patients were randomly assigned, in a 1:1 ratio, to receive long-term supplemental oxygen (supplemental-oxygen group) or no long-term supplemental oxygen (no-supplemental-oxygen group). In the supplemental-oxygen group, patients with resting desaturation were prescribed 24-hour oxygen, and those with desaturation only during exercise were prescribed oxygen during exercise and sleep. The trial-group assignment was not masked. RESULTS: A total of 738 patients at 42 centers were followed for 1 to 6 years. In a time-to-event analysis, we found no significant difference between the supplemental-oxygen group and the no-supplemental-oxygen group in the time to death or first hospitalization (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79 to 1.12; P=0.52), nor in the rates of all hospitalizations (rate ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.91 to 1.13), COPD exacerbations (rate ratio, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.98 to 1.19), and COPD-related hospitalizations (rate ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.83 to 1.17). We found no consistent between-group differences in measures of quality of life, lung function, and the distance walked in 6 minutes. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with stable COPD and resting or exercise-induced moderate desaturation, the prescription of long-term supplemental oxygen did not result in a longer time to death or first hospitalization than no long-term supplemental oxygen, nor did it provide sustained benefit with regard to any of the other measured outcomes. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services; LOTT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00692198 .).

Effect of Endobronchial Coils vs Usual Care on Exercise Tolerance in Patients With Severe Emphysema: The RENEW Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Preliminary clinical trials have demonstrated that endobronchial coils compress emphysematous lung tissue and may improve lung function, exercise tolerance, and symptoms in patients with emphysema and severe lung hyperinflation. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effectiveness and safety of endobronchial coil treatment. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Randomized clinical trial conducted among 315 patients with emphysema and severe air trapping recruited from 21 North American and 5 European sites from December 2012 through November 2015. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomly assigned to continue usual care alone (guideline based, including pulmonary rehabilitation and bronchodilators; n = 157) vs usual care plus bilateral coil treatment (n = 158) involving 2 sequential procedures 4 months apart in which 10 to 14 coils were bronchoscopically placed in a single lobe of each lung. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary effectiveness outcome was difference in absolute change in 6-minute-walk distance between baseline and 12 months (minimal clinically important difference [MCID], 25 m). Secondary end points included the difference between groups in 6-minute walk distance responder rate, absolute change in quality of life using the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (MCID, 4) and change in forced expiratory volume in the first second (FEV1; MCID, 10%). The primary safety analysis compared the proportion of participants experiencing at least 1 of 7 prespecified major complications. RESULTS: Among 315 participants (mean age, 64 years; 52% women), 90% completed the 12-month follow-up. Median change in 6-minute walk distance at 12 months was 10.3 m with coil treatment vs -7.6 m with usual care, with a between-group difference of 14.6 m (Hodges-Lehmann 97.5% CI, 0.4 m to ∞; 1-sided P = .02). Improvement of at least 25 m occurred in 40.0% of patients in the coil group vs 26.9% with usual care (odds ratio, 1.8 [97.5% CI, 1.1 to ∞]; unadjusted between-group difference, 11.8% [97.5% CI, 1.0% to ∞]; 1-sided P = .01). The between-group difference in median change in FEV1 was 7.0% (97.5% CI, 3.4% to ∞; 1-sided P < .001), and the between-group St George's Respiratory Questionnaire score improved -8.9 points (97.5% CI, -∞ to -6.3 points; 1-sided P < .001), each favoring the coil group. Major complications (including pneumonia requiring hospitalization and other potentially life-threatening or fatal events) occurred in 34.8% of coil participants vs 19.1% of usual care (P = .002). Other serious adverse events including pneumonia (20% coil vs 4.5% usual care) and pneumothorax (9.7% vs 0.6%, respectively) occurred more frequently in the coil group. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Among patients with emphysema and severe hyperinflation treated for 12 months, the use of endobronchial coils compared with usual care resulted in an improvement in median exercise tolerance that was modest and of uncertain clinical importance, with a higher likelihood of major complications. Further follow-up is needed to assess long-term effects on health outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01608490.

A Hybrid Interview Model for Medical School Interviews: Combining Traditional and Multisampling Formats.

PROBLEM: Most medical schools have either retained a traditional admissions interview or fully adopted an innovative, multisampling format (e.g., the multiple mini-interview) despite there being advantages and disadvantages associated with each format. APPROACH: The University of Michigan Medical School (UMMS) sought to maximize the strengths associated with both interview formats after recognizing that combining the two approaches had the potential to capture additional, unique information about an applicant. In September 2014, the UMMS implemented a hybrid interview model with six, 6-minute short-form interviews-highly structured scenario-based encounters-and two, 30-minute semistructured long-form interviews. Five core skills were assessed across both interview formats. OUTCOMES: Overall, applicants and admissions committee members reported favorable reactions to the hybrid model, supporting continued use of the model. The generalizability coefficients for the six-station short-form and the two-interview long-form formats were estimated to be 0.470 and 0.176, respectively. Different skills were more reliably assessed by different interview formats. Scores from each format seemed to be operating independently as evidenced through moderate to low correlations (r = 0.100-0.403) for the same skills measured across different interview formats; however, after correcting for attenuation, these correlations were much higher. NEXT STEPS: This hybrid model will be revised and optimized to capture the skills most reliably assessed by each format. Future analysis will examine validity by determining whether short-form and long-form interview scores accurately measure the skills intended to be assessed. Additionally, data collected from both formats will be used to establish baselines for entering students' competencies.

Enrollment Management in Medical School Admissions: A Novel Evidence-Based Approach at One Institution.

PURPOSE: In higher education, enrollment management has been developed to accurately predict the likelihood of enrollment of admitted students. This allows evidence to dictate numbers of interviews scheduled, offers of admission, and financial aid package distribution. The applicability of enrollment management techniques for use in medical education was tested through creation of a predictive enrollment model at the University of Michigan Medical School (U-M). METHOD: U-M and American Medical College Application Service data (2006-2014) were combined to create a database including applicant demographics, academic application scores, institutional financial aid offer, and choice of school attended. Binomial logistic regression and multinomial logistic regression models were estimated in order to study factors related to enrollment at the local institution versus elsewhere and to groupings of competing peer institutions. A predictive analytic "dashboard" was created for practical use. RESULTS: Both models were significant at P < .001 and had similar predictive performance. In the binomial model female, underrepresented minority students, grade point average, Medical College Admission Test score, admissions committee desirability score, and most individual financial aid offers were significant (P < .05). The significant covariates were similar in the multinomial model (excluding female) and provided separate likelihoods of students enrolling at different institutional types. CONCLUSIONS: An enrollment-management-based approach would allow medical schools to better manage the number of students they admit and target recruitment efforts to improve their likelihood of success. It also performs a key institutional research function for understanding failed recruitment of highly desirable candidates.